Analysts: PCG offer makes it the largest regional IPO

Excited about this IPO which is on offering to the public now for RM5.05 and will be listed on main board on Nov. 26 would be a component of the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) gearing on price/earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.8 times. Earnings per share was estimated at 32 sen for the financial year ending March 31, 2012 (FY12).
Would it be like the MMHB for only a day show? Only the market knows. But at offering price of RM5.05 which represents a historical PE of 18.4 times at an earnings per share of 27.5 sen for FY10 as stated in the prospectus. Thus it shall stand at oversubscribed, and considered as only a trading buy.

By JEEVA ARULAMPALAM (extract from Star)

PETALING JAYA: The retail price of RM5.05 for Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (PCG) shares under the company’s initial public offering (IPO) is regarded by analysts as fairly priced.

PCG, which released its prospectus on Bursa Malaysia yesterday and plans to list on the Main Market on Nov 26, said it was offering a total of 2.48 billion shares under its IPO, of which 1.78 billion would be existing shares and 700 million would be new.

The listing of PCG this month would make it the largest IPO in South-East Asia to-date, with an estimated US$4.04bil raised at an offer price of RM5.05 per share.

A local research head said PCG was a “must have stock,” given that it is a subsidiary of Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) and since PCG would be a component of the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI).

He told StarBiz yesterday that PCG would be oversubscribed for those very reasons, as seen with last week’s listing of Petronas’ other subsidiary, Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MHB). MHB’s shares were oversubscribed 27.7 times for its institutional offering.

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd research head Yeonzon Yeow recently said Kenanga’s fair value for PCG was RM5.05 per share, based on price/earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.8 times. Earnings per share was estimated at 32 sen for the financial year ending March 31, 2012 (FY12).

He had said that trading liquidity of the stock might be low after the initially weeks following the listing, as it would be a core holding stock for investors.

Meanwhile, another research head said PCG’s retail price of RM5.05 was on the high side based on the company’s valuation.

“When the price determination is finally done, the retail price may come down to RM4.70 or RM4.80,” he said.

The company’s retail price of RM5.05 represents a historical PE of 18.4 times at an earnings per share of 27.5 sen for FY10 as stated in the prospectus.

The prospectus said the final retail price would be the lower option of either RM5.05 per share or 97% of the institutional price. The institutional price will be determined through a bookbuilding exercise, which is ongoing and will end on Nov 12. The final price determination for the retail portion will be done subsequently.

From the 1.78 billion existing shares offered under the IPO, 1.48 billion shares are for Malaysian and foreign institutional investors as well as bumiputra investors, while the retail offer of 293.02 million shares covers the Malaysian public, eligible directors of PCG and Petronas, eligible employees and customers. The 700 million new shares offered are for Malaysian and foreign institutional investors.

The retail offer for the Malaysian public was 160 million shares, with half portioned for bumiputra retail investors and the remaining 80 million shares meant for non-bumiputra retail investors.

“We see it as a trend these days where companies are reducing their retail offering to the public because it is easier for companies to sell in blocks under IPOs,” said a research head.

PCG said in its prospectus that the expected IPO gross proceeds would be RM3.54bil. About 63.3% of the proceeds would be used for expansion of business and synergistic growth and acquisitions. Another 34% would be used as working capital requirements and general corporate purposes while the balance would be used to settle listing expenses.

PCG also said it was studying the possibility of developing a world-scale, greenfield ammonia and urea production facility that would be supplied with natural gas feedstock available off the east coast of the peninsula.

The principal adviser, managing underwriter and joint underwriter is CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. The joint global coordinators and joint bookrunners for the institutional offering are CIMB, Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, and Morgan Stanley & Co International plc.

The joint underwriters for the retail offering are Affin Investment Bank Bhd, HwangDBS Investment Bank, Alliance Investment Bank Bhd, KAF Investment Ban Bhd, OSK Investment Bank Bhd, AmInvestment Bank Bhd, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, Public Investment Bank Bhd, ECM Libra Investment Bank Bhd, MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd, RHB Investment Bank Bhd, Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd and MIMB Investment Bank Bhd.